BOM models show chance of above average rainfalls.
BOM models show chance of above average rainfalls.

Wet start to winter forecast for most of Queensland

QUEENSLAND can expect a wet start to winter if Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Climate Outlooks are accurate. 

As April comes to an end this week, an upper trough will approach south-west Queensland resulting in the chance of isolated high-based, gusty thunderstorms. 

While atmospheric conditions remain stable across the majority of the state today, the region at risk of convective activity in the northern tropics expands on Friday due to an increase in mid-level atmospheric moisture. 

High precipitable water values could result in localised heavy falls in this area. 

Today's forecast

  • Mackay - Showers and a max of 28
  • Rockhampton - Showers and a max of 28
  • Gladstone - Showers and a max of 28
  • Bundaberg - Showers and a max of 28
  • Hervey Bay - Showers and a max of 27
  • Gympie - Showers and a max of 28
  • Sunshine Coast - Showers and a max of 26
  • Brisbane - Showers and a max of 26
  • Ipswich - Showers and a max of 28
  • Toowoomba - Showers and a max of 24

BOM today released their monthly and seasonal climate outlooks for May to July 2016 with models predicting an increased chance of wet conditions across Queensland. 

Above average rainfall expected for most of Queensland.
Above average rainfall expected for most of Queensland.

Areas along the east coast from Brisbane to just north of Mackay have a 65% chance of exceeding average rainfalls over the next three months. 

From May - July, areas in south-east Queensland could receive between 100-300mm while the Wide Bay and Central Queensland regions could receive totals of 50-100mm. 

Northern Australia officially enters its dry season at the start of May and for the May-July period, large parts of northern Australian typically only see average falls of less than 10mm for the three months.

In regards to temperature, warm nights are expected to continue throughout Queensland with May daytime and night time temperatures very likely to be warmer than average. 

The outlook reflects a combination of very warm Indian Ocean temperatures, a rapidly weakening El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures surrounding much of Australia. 

The wet weather could continue from July, with BOM officially on La Nina 'watch'. 

BOM forecasts predict a 50% chance of La Nina developing in the second half of the year. 

Temperature outlook for Queensland
Temperature outlook for Queensland

La Niña is often, but not always, associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.

 

 


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