Get set for a winter weather shock

ENJOY what's left of today's "spring-like" weather because this is the best of it.

Maximum temperatures that topped 28 degrees will return to winter averages of 21-22 degrees by Saturday after falling a degree on Friday.

The news is all good for the Sunshine Coast Show in Nambour which can expect dry conditions Friday and Saturday before showers and light rain kick in on Sunday.

A Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson said Maroochydore's peak would drop down to 21 or 22 degrees by Sunday and Monday.

She said wins that have been light and variable from the north-west to north-east would pick up from the south, south-east on Sunday with the odd shower and light rain through the day.

Surf Alert forecaster Mike Perry expects Saturday to bring light offshore winds which would ease away throughout the day.

The swell which has turned on points and open beach breaks from Noosa to Caloundra all week has dropped away to about a metre in size delivering sets both above and below that mark on Saturday making for quality all-day surfing.

On Sunday the stiffening south to south-east winds will shut down most beach breaks by the afternoon following light offshore breezes early.

In the longer term Dr Jeff Sabburg, the bureau's senior climate liaison officer, says the three-month outlook from June through to August shows a 75-80% chance of above median rainfall.

As a result there's an 80% chance night time minimum temperatures will be warmer and the days in line with season averages.

Dr Sabburg said we had come out of the El Nino cycle associated with dry conditions into neutral and were now on La Nina alert with a 50% chance of one forming in 2016.

He said six of eight climate models suggest we will move into a winter La Nina through June to August with a clearer picture likely within two weeks.

If that occurs the possibility of a summer La Nina would jump to 70%.

Its strength would then dictate the degree of impact with the system closely associated with an increase in cyclone activity.

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